South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-9)

Climate Services Users Forum for Agriculture (CSUF-Ag2)

About The Event

Background/ Context:
South Asian climate is influenced by both tropical (Oct-Dec) and temperate mid-latitude (Dec-Feb) circulation systems during the winter months. Southern parts of South Asia, including peninsular India, Sri Lanka, Maldives and southern coastal areas of Myanmar are influenced by North East Monsoon (Re-establishment of prevalent north easterly trade-wind regime over South Asia associated with the southward movement of the ITCZ), while extra-tropical activity dominated by “Western disturbances” influence the northern parts of the region including Afghanistan, Pakistan, north India, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar. It is therefore necessary that seasonal forecasts for winter season be issued at two different times – one during September/October for southern region and the other during November/December for northern region. The crucial role of winter rains and the growing recognition of the benefits of SASCOFs in articulating and sharing seasonal climate information have led to the need for regularly conducting winter SASCOFs. Winter sessions of SASCOF’s were started in 2015 keeping in view the importance of winter seasonal climate to key user sectors. The first winter SASCOF session was held in October 2015, at Chennai, Tamil Nadu India, followed by Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar in 2016, Male, Maldives in 2017, Colombo, Sri Lanka in 2018 and Thiruvananthapuram, India in 2019.Last two years (2020 and 2021), SASCOF Winter Sessions were held online due to CoViD-19 pandemic.

Objectives:
The objective of the forum is to prepare consensus seasonal climate information on regional scale that provides a consistent basis for preparing national level outlooks. Such platforms also serve to interact with user sector to understand and enhance the use of climate information. The SASCOF-23 is scheduled to be held in online due to CoViD-19 pandemic. The Regional Climate Centre (RCC), Pune of India Meteorological Department (IMD), Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early-warning System for Asia and Africa (RIMES) and WMO (World Meteorological Organization) shall provide technical support and be involved in organizing this online session of SASCOF.

Expected Outcome:
SASCOF-23 will prepare a climate outlook for the 2022 winter season covering the months from October to December. NMHSs from SASCOF member countries Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, as well as several regional and global experts will jointly prepare this consensus outlook. The CSUF session will focus on interface with users from the various application sector to interpret seasonal climate information and understand their specific needs with a view to further customizes climate information.
Overview of the Agenda :
Day 1 & 2: September 26-27, 2022 – Technical session will consider available seasonal prediction output from WMO Global Producing Centers (GPCs) and the Lead Centre for LRF MME together with presentation of country forecasts and discussions.
Day 3: September 28, 2022 – Finalizing draft consensus statement for seasonal climate outlook through E-mail communications with SASCOF participants.
Day 4: September 29, 2022 – User oriented sessions focused on sharing, understanding and interpreting the seasonal climate outlook.
Participation:
All National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of South Asia; invited national and international experts; experts from WMO and RIMES; experts from RCCs (Tokyo Climate Center (JMA), UK Met Office and other GPCs, IMD and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).

Logistics

Overview

Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), under the Ministry of Transport and Communication, is hosting the ninth session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-9) on 27-28 September 2016 and the second session of the Climate Services Users Forum for Agriculture (CSUF-Ag2) on 28-29 September 2016, in Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar.  The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES) are supporting the event, with assistance from the Government of Canada.

SASCOF-9 is aimed at bringing together national, regional and global experts, for facilitating the generation of consensus-based climate outlook for the ensuing winter season. The consensus-based climate outlook will then be presented to agriculture departments from South Asian countries and Myanmar, through the CSUF-Ag2 during the joint session on 28 September 2016, for potential integration into seasonal plans and decisions.

Meeting Structure and Participants

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) from South Asian countries (i.e. Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) and Myanmar shall convene in the SASCOF 9. Technical inputs, for generating consensus-based seasonal climate outlook, will be provided by WMO’s Regional Climate Centers (RCCs) and participating Global Producing Centers (GPCs).

The resulting consensus-based climate outlook from SASCOF-9, for the 2016-2017 winter season, shall be shared to representatives from agriculture departments/sector of the same countries, in the subsequent CSUF-Ag2.

It should be noted that SASCOF-9 integrates into CSUF-Ag2, though a joint session on 28 September 2016. 

The meeting agenda will be shared, through your email address, by DMH/RIMES.

Meeting Language

The meeting will be in English; no arrangement for translation will be provided.

Meeting Venue

Both the SASCOF-9 and the CSUF-Ag2 will be hosted by DMH at Royal Ace Hotel, Block 15/16, Taw Win Yadanar Road, National Guest House Compound, Dekhinathiri Township, Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar. Royal Ace Hotel can be contacted through Telephone No.: +95-67-8106022. More information can obtained via http://thehotelroyalace.com.

The meeting hall details will be provided, as soon as you register, in the hotel.

Registration of Participants

Participants in SASCOF-9 should register with the Registration Committee, in the morning of 27 September 2016. On the other hand, participants in CSUF-Ag2 should register in the morning of 28 September 2016.

Nay Pyi Taw Overview

Nay Pyi Taw,  the new capital of Myanmar, is around 300 kilometers north of the country’s previous capital, Yangon. A young capital (established in 2006) in the forefront of Myanmar’s changing economic landscape, Nay Pyi Taw has seen fast infrastructure development in recent years.

Myanmar Standard Time (MST) is UTC+06:30.

Rainfall in Nay Pyi Taw and in surrounding areas peak in July and August. Rainfall in September is around 190 mm, distributed over an average of 19 rainfall days. Average minimum temperature is around 24°C while average maximum temperature is around 32°C.

Entry Visa to Myanmar

Nationals from Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, regardless of the type of passport used, can enter Myanmar visa-free, depending on the length of stay (not more than 30 days for Singapore nationals; not more than 14 days for nationals of other countries).

Nationals of Bangladesh, Belarus, Brazil, China, India, Korea, Malaysia, Mongolia, and Russia, holding diplomatic or official passports can enter Myanmar visa-free, subject to required documentary support (refer to http://www.mofa.gov.mm/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/List-of-Countries-Having-Bilateral-Visa-Exemption-Agreements-with-Myanmar.pdf)

To ensure, however, the ease of your entry to Myanmar, your entry visa is being facilitated by DMH, regardless of the passport type you will be using. You will be receiving the following visa application support, from DMH:

  • Official invitation letter from Dr. Hrin Nei Thiam, Director General, DMH
  • Request from the Ministry of Transport to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to grant/approve your entry visa (in Myanmar language)

If you are applying for visa ahead of your travel to Myanmar, you are to print these visa support documents, and submit your visa application, together with other visa application requirements (i.e. completed visa application form, 2 passport size photos with white background, and travel itinerary) to the Myanmar Embassy in your country.

If you are applying for visa upon your arrival in Nay Pyi Taw or Yangon, be sure that you are carrying the said visa application support documents from DMH, together with completed visa application form, 2 passport size photos with white background, and printed copy of your flight ticket. Visa application form is attached with this Information Note Visa on Arrival application, and also available upon your arrival either in Nay Pyi Taw or Yangon Airport.

You can apply for entry/business visa which allows you to stay in Myanmar up to 28 days. Visa fee is USD 40; please prepare the exact amount.

You may indicate the following details, when asked of the contact person in Myanmar, when applying for visa:

Dr. Hrin Nei Thiam
Director General
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Ministry of Transport and Communication
Telephone No.: +95-67-411031
Email Address: dg.dmh1@gmail.com

As DMH/Ministry of Transport and Communication takes charge of the visa approval process, through institutional procedures with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there is NO need for you to apply for visa online.

Flight Details

For sponsored participants, your flight details and other travel arrangements (including local transportation in Myanmar) are arranged by Ms. Dusadee Moya, Human Resource and Administrative Officer, RIMES. For related concerns, please contact directly Ms. Dusadee Moya through email ID: dusadee@rimes.int or telephone no.: +662 516 5900.

Airport Transfer

For participants whose port of entry to Myanmar is Nay Pyi Taw, Nay Pyi Taw International Airport is about 20 kilometers from Nay Pyi Taw City, where Royal Ace Hotel is located. Airport transfer for sponsored participants has been arranged by DMH/RIMES, based on your flight itinerary. Members of the meeting staff shall be meeting you at the airport, bearing a name board.

For participants whose port of entry to Myanmar is Yangon, transportation to Nay Pyi Taw has also been arranged by DMH/RIMES. Members of the meeting staff shall be meeting you outside the airport and will facilitate your onward travel to Nay Pyi Taw, which is around five (5) hours by road.

For non-sponsored/self-paying participants, in case assistance is required for arranging your airport transfer, please contact Ms. Dusadee Moya through contact details indicated in Flight Details.

Hotel Accommodation

All sponsored participants are booked in Royal Ace Hotel, which is also the SASCOF-9 and CSUF-Ag2 venue. You may refer to 2.3 for the contact details of the hotel.

For non-sponsored/self-paying participants who wish to be booked in Royal Ace Hotel, you can coordinate with Ms. Dusadee Moya, via contact details provided in Flight Details, for assistance in hotel accommodation booking.

Daily Subsistence Allowance

DMH/RIMES shall pay for hotel accommodation cost of sponsored participants. DMH/RIMES will not cover personal costs including, but not limited to, local and long distance telephone call, in-room dining, and mini-bar costs. These personal costs shall be paid for directly by participants, upon checking out from the hotel.

Breakfast is provided as part of the hotel accommodation package. Lunch and refreshments, from 27-29 September 2016, are arranged as part of the meetings.

Participants are to make their own arrangements for dinner. DMH/RIMES shall be providing per diem to participants to cover dinner and incidentals.

Reimbursements

To facilitate reimbursement of relevant costs (local transportation, visa fee, etc.) and payment of per diem for sponsored participants, please enclose your boarding pass(es), local transportation receipt, and visa fee receipt in an envelope with your name on it and hand-over the same to the Meeting Secretariat, upon registration.

Internet Connectivity

Internet connectivity is provided by Royal Ace Hotel, within its premises (in rooms as well as in meeting halls), for free.

Currency and Credit cards

1 US Dollar is roughly equivalent to 1,200 Myanmar Kyats. Currency exchange kiosks are available at local banks. Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) are available within the hotel premises, as well as in nearby malls.

While some establishments already accept credit cards for payments, the use of the same is still not optimum in Myanmar.

Contacts

For any other required information and logistical assistances, please contact Ms. Dusadee Moya through contact details provided earlier, with copy to Ms. Ruby Rose Policarpio, Institutional Development Specialist, RIMES (ruby@rimes.int)  and Dr. Anshul Agarwal, Hydrologist, RIMES (anshul@rimes.int).

For discussions relative to the meeting agenda, please contact Dr. Govindarajalu Srinivasan, Chief Scientist, RIMES (srini@rimes.int).

DMH and RIMES Meeting Staff will be ready to assist you, for any concerns that may arise upon your arrival in Myanmar. Local contact numbers will be shared with you, through a revised Information Note, in due course.

Agenda

Day 1Tuesday, 27 September 2016
09:00-09:30Inaugural Session
Welcome Address H.E Mr. Kyaw Myo, Deputy Minister, MOTC, Myanmar
Opening RemarksDr. Govindarajalu Srinivasan, Chief Scientist, RIMES, Bangkok, Thailand
Opening RemarksDr. Rupa Kumar Kolli, Chief, World Climate Application and Services Division (WCAS), WMO, Geneva, Switzerland
10:00-10:30Group photograph followed by TEA/COFFEE BREAK
Session 1 A Winter climate over South Asia: how was 2015 and what is expected for winter of 2016-17?
Session Co-Chairs: Dr.Hrin Nei Thiam, DG, DMH, Myanmar and Prof. Yuri Kuleshov, BOM, Australia
Rapporteur: Dr. Tin Mar Htay; Mr.Itesh Dash, RIMES
10:30-11:00Winter climate over South Asia: An Overview with highlights from 2015-16 season"Mr. Kariyawasam
Former Director General, DoM, Sri Lanka
GPC/RCCs/Institution presentations covering 2015-16 winter Seasonal Climate monitoring products & outlook for the 2016-17 winter season (20 minutes presentations and 10 minutes discussions)
11:00-11:30 Seasonal Climate monitoring and climate outlook products from the Beijing Climate Center (BCC)Dr. Changzheng Liu
BCC, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), China
11:30-12:00 Seasonal Climate monitoring and climate outlook products from the Tokyo Climate Center (TCC)Mr. Shoji Hirahara
TCC, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Japan
12:00-12:30 Seasonal Climate monitoring and climate outlook products from the WMO Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (WMO LC-LRFMME), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)Ms. Gayoung Kim
WMO LC-LRFMME, KMA
12:30-13:00Seasonal Climate monitoring and climate outlook products from the UK Met OfficeMr. Andrew William Colman
UK Met Office, United Kingdom
13:00-14:00LUNCH
Session 1 B Country Experience
Chair: Mr. Kariyawasam, ex-DG, DoM, Sri Lanka
Rapporteur: Dr. Tin Mar Htay and Mr. Itesh Dash, RIMES
14:00-15:30 Country Presentations Covering
Climatology of winter season (Oct’15 to Feb’16)
Current Prediction System/Verification
Prediction for 2016-17 winter season
Bangladesh(Ms. Nayma Bate, BMD)
Bhutan(Mr. Tayba Buddha Tamang, DHMS)
(Dr. Zahid Hameed, MMS)
Myanmar(Dr. Tin Mar Htay and Ms. Han Swe, DMH)
Nepal(Mr. Shiva Nepal, DHM)
Pakistan(Mr. Zubair Siddiqui, PMD)
Sri Lanka(Mr. Meril Mendis, DoM)
15:30-16:00TEA/COFFEE BREAK
16:00-16:30Country Presentations (cont.)India(Dr. S. Balachadran, IMD)
16:30-17:30Presentation of RCC (Demo) India Meteorological Department product a and the draft consensus outlook followed by discussionsDr. Pai, IMD, Pune, India
END OF DAY 1
Day 2Wednesday, 28 September 2016 (Joint Session)
SASCOF-9 & Climate Services Users Forum – Agriculture 2 (CSUF-Ag2)
09:00-09:30Welcome address - Dr. Hrin Nei Thiam, DG, DMH, Myanmar
Inaugural speech - Mr. Aye Ko Ko, Deputy Director General, DoA, Myanmar or representative
Opening Remarks Dr. Rupa Kumar Kolli, Chief, World Climate Application and Services Division (WCAS), WMO, Geneva, Switzerland
Introduction by participants
Overview remarks – Dr. G. Srinivasan, RIMES
Session 2 Seasonal Climate information: Enabling Climate Services
Session Co-Chairs: Dr. Zahid, Dy DG, MMS and Ms. Ye Ye Nyein, Director, DMH
Rapporteurs: Ms. Han Swe, DMH and Dr. Anshul Agarwal, RIMES
(20 minutes presentations and 10 minutes discussions)
09:30-10:00Overview presentation on GPCs and Global frameworks for climate services and role of RCCsDr. Rupa Kumar
WMO
10:00-10:30General introduction to the drivers of seasonal climate during winter season of 2015-16, including BoM climate outlook productsProf. Yuriy Kuleshov
BOM, Australia
10:30-11:00TEA/COFFEE BREAK
11:00-11:30Extended range products being generated by IITM, PuneMr. Kariyawasam
Former Director General, DoM, Sri Lanka
11:30-12:00 Use of seasonal climate outlooks for agriculture sector
12:00-13:00 Sharing the consensus SASCOF-9 climate outlook with usersDr. Changzheng Liu
BCC, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), China
13:00-14:00LUNCH
Session 3 Using climate information in the Agricultural Sector – Challenges
Session Co-Chairs: Ms. Thuzar Myint, Director, Department of Agriculture and Dr. G. Srinivasan, RIMES
Rapporteurs: Ms. Han Swe, DMH and Dr. Anshul Agarwal, RIMES
14:00-15:30Discussions in Working Groups
(About four WG will discuss and interpret the seasonal forecast for various aspects of agricultural applications)
Ms. Nina Karla Alparce

RIMES shall facilitate the WG discussions – there will be two persons from each NMHSs to facilitate climate outlook interpretations; guide questions will be provided
15:00-15:30
TEA/COFFEE BREAK
15:30-16:00Presentation by coordinators of each WG followed by discussionsCo-chairs will conduct the session
Session 4 SASCOF follow-up at National Level
Session Co-Chairs: Dr. Rupa Kumar Kolli, WMO and Ms. Khin Cho Cho Shein, Director, DMH
Rapporteurs: Ms. Han Swe, DMH and Dr. Anshul Agarwal, RIMES
16:00-16:20National level seasonal Forums & agriculture sector users requirementsMs. Ruby Rose, RIMES
16:20-17:30Wrap-up discussion on how the SASCOF outcome should be followed up at the national levels: Short presentation followed by country interventionsLead by G. Srinivasan, RIMES
END OF DAY 2
Day 3Thursday, 29 September 2016
Climate Services Users Forum – Agriculture 2 (CSUF-Ag2)
Session 5 Agriculture Sector’s climate information requirements
Session Chair: Dr. A. K. Sahai, IITM, Pune, India and Ms. May Khin Chaw, Deputy Director, DMH
Rapporteurs: Ms. Aye Aye Soe and Ms. Nina Karla Alparce, RIMES
09:00-09:30Maximising the use of forecast information in Agriculture: Experiences from Farmers Field School in Tamil Nadu, IndiaDr. Anshul Agarwal, RIMES
09:30-10:30Brief country presentations/sharing of experience covering, but not limited to the following aspects:
Current level of climate forecast availability
How are they being used operationally in the country at national, sub-national and end-user level
Needs and requirements for the future
Bangladesh(Dr. Abul Basar Zahid Hossain, Irrigation and Water Management Division Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI))
Bhutan(Mr. Sagar Acharya, Agriculture Research and Extension, Department of Agriculture)
Maldives(Dr. Aminath Shafia, Ministry of Fisheries and Agriculture)
Myanmar(Mr. Htin Aung Shein, Department of Agriculture)
10:30-11:00TEA/COFFEE BREAK
11:00-13:00Brief country presentations/sharing of experience (cont.):Nepal(Ms. Asha Sharma, Ministry of Agriculture Development)
India(Dr. A.V.M. Subba Rao, Central Research Institute for Dry land Agriculture)
Pakistan(Dr. Tasneem Khaliq, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad)
13:00-14:00LUNCH
Session 6 Use of operational climate information for agricultural risk management
Session Chair: Dr. Hrin Nei Thiam, DG, DMH, Myanmar and Dr. Pai, IMD, Pune
Rapporteur: Ms. Aye Aye Soe and Ms. Nina Karla Alparce, RIMES
14:00-14:30DMH strategies for Agro-met development in MyanmarMs. May Khin Chaw, DMH, Myanmar
14:30-14:50SASCOF 9 & CSUF-Ag2 website features & Updates demoMr. Itesh Dash, RIMES
14:50-16:00Panel Discussion: Opportunities and challenges – road map for better use of climate services for the agricultural sectorDr. Hrin Nei Thiam DG, DMH, Myanmar
Dr. Rupa Kumar Koli
Ms. Khon Ra, Director, DOI
Dr. G. Srinivasan, RIMES
16:00-16:30Recommendations and Wrap-upTo follow from the preceding session
TEA/COFFEE BREAK
END OF DAY 3 & CLOSING

List of participants

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-9)

Bangladesh

Ms. Nayma Baten
Meteorologist
Climate Division
Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)
Abhawa, Agargon
Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh

Bhutan

Mr. Tayba Buddha Tamang
Senior Meteorologist
Department of Hydro Meteorological Services (DHMS)
Ministry of Economic Affairs
Royal Government of Bhutan
P.O. Box 207
Thimphu, Bhutan

India

Dr. S. Balachandran
Scientist ‘E’
Cyclone Warning Research Centre
Regional Meteorological Centre
6, College Road, NUMGAMBAKKAM
Chennai, India

Maldives

Mr. Zahid
Deputy Director General Climatology
Maldives Meteorological Service
Hulhule 22000
Maldives

Nepal

Mr. Shiva Prasad Nepal
Senior Divisional Meteorologist
Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM)
Kathmandu, Naxal
Nepal

Pakistan

Mr. Zubair Ahamad Siddiqui
Director of Regional Meteorology Centre
Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)
Headquarter Office Sector H‐8/2
P.O. Box 1214
Islamabad, Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Mr. Murukuwadura Meril Prasantha Mendis
Meteorologist in Charge
Department of Meteorology
Ministry of Disaster Management
383 Bauddhaloka Mawatha
Colombo 07, Sri Lanka

Climate Services Users Forum for Agriculture (CSUF-Ag2)

Bangladesh

Dr. Abul Basar Md Zahid Hossain
Senior Scientific Officer
Irrigation and Water Management Division
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI)
Gazipur-1701, Bangladesh

Bhutan

Mr. Sagar Acharya
Agriculture Officer
Agriculture Research and Extension
Department of Agriculture
Ministry of Agriculture and Forests
Thimphu, Bhutan

India

Dr. A.V.M. Subba Rao
Senior Scientist, CRIDA
Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture
Santoshnagar, Hyderabad -500 059
Andhra Pradesh, India

Maldives

Dr. Aminath Shafia
Director General
Ministry of Fisheries and Agriculture
MALE, Maldives

Nepal

Ms. Asha Sharma
Agri-Economist
Ministry of Agriculture Development
Singhadurbar
Kathmandu, Nepal

Pakistan

Dr. Tasneem Khaliq
Assistant Professor
University of Agriculture, Faisalabad
University Road
Faisalabad, Pakistan

Resource person and Donor

WMO

Dr. Rapakumar Kolli
Chief
World Climate Application and Service
Climate Prediction and Adaptation
World Meteorological Organization
Secretariat
7 bis, Avenue de la Paix
Case postale 2300
CH1211, Geneve 2
Switzerland

BOM, Australia

Dr. Yuriy Kuleshov
Professor
Bureau of Meteorology
700 Collins Street,
Docklands 3008, Melbourne
Australia

CMA, China

Dr. Changzheng Liu
Senior Forecaster
Beijing Climate Center
China Meteorological Administration (CMA)
46 Zhongguancun
Nandajie 100081
Beijing, China

IITM-PUNE, India

Dr. Atul Kumar Sahai
Scientist G
Climate Prediction Department
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)
Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008
Maharashtra, India

IMD_PUNE, India

Ms. Gayoung Kim
Researcher
Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)
WMO LC-LRFMME
61 16-Gil Yeouldaebang- Ro
Dongjak-Gu
Seoul 07062, Republic of Korea

DoM, Sri Lanka

Mr. Shoji Hirahara
Scientific Officer
Tokyo Climate Center (TCC)
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
1-3-4, Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku
Tokyo, Japan

KMA, South Korea

Dr. Sivananda Pai Damodara
DDGM
Climate Service Division
Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)
Shivajinagar Pune 411005
India

TCC, Japan

Mr. S.H. Kariyawasam
Former Director General
P.O. Box 383, Bauddhaloka Mawatha
Colombo 07, Sri Lanka

Met office, UK

Mr. Andrew William Colman
Senior Climate Scientist
Met Office Hadley Centre
Fritzroy Road Exeter Ex8 4NS
United Kingdom

Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), Myanmar

Dr. Hrin Nei Thiam
Director General
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar

Ms. Ye Ye Nyein
Director
Yangon
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar

Ms. Khin Cho Cho Shein
Director
Nay Pyi Taw
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar

Ms. Tin Yi
Director
Nay Pyi Taw
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar

Ms. May Khin Chaw
Deputy Director
Yangon
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar

Mr. Hla Tun
Deputy Director
Nay Pyi Taw
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar

Mr. Tin Htut
Deputy Director
Yangon
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar

Ms. Nyein Nyein Naing
Deputy Director
Nay Pyi Taw
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar

Mr. Win Maw
Assistant Director
Nay Pyi Taw
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar

Dr. Than Naing
Staff Officer
Nay Pyi Taw
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar

Ms. Han Swe
Staff Officer
Nay Pyi Taw
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar

Dr. Tin Mar Htay
Staff Officer
Nay Pyi Taw
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar

Ms. Aye Aye Soe
Staff Officer
Yangon
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar

Ms. Chaw Su Hlaing
Deputy Superintendent
Nay Pyi Taw
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar

Dr. Khin Thin Yu
Deputy Superintendent
Yangon
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar

Ms. Shwe Ye New
Staff Officer
Yangon
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar

Ms. Thazin Phoo
Staff Officer
Nay Pyi Taw
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar

Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES)

Mr. A. R. Subbiah
Director
Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)
2nd Floor, Outreach Building
Asian Institute of Technology Campus
Klong Nung, Klong Luang
Pathumthani 12120

Dr. Govindarajalu Srinivasan
Chief Scientist
Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)
2nd Floor, Outreach Building
Asian Institute of Technology Campus
Klong Nung, Klong Luang
Pathumthani 12120

Ms. Ruby Rose Policarpio
Institution Development Specialist
Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)
2nd Floor, Outreach Building
Asian Institute of Technology Campus
Klong Nung, Klong Luang
Pathumthani 12120

Dr. Anshul Agarwal
Hydrologist
Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)
2nd Floor, Outreach Building
Asian Institute of Technology Campus
Klong Nung, Klong Luang
Pathumthani 12120

Mr. Itesh Dash
Team Leader
System Research and Development
Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)
2nd Floor, Outreach Building
Asian Institute of Technology Campus
Klong Nung, Klong Luang
Pathumthani 12120

Ms. Nina Karla Alparce
Program Officer
Soceital Application
Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)
2nd Floor, Outreach Building
Asian Institute of Technology Campus
Klong Nung, Klong Luang
Pathumthani 12120

Outlook

Consensus Outlook

Summary

Normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of south Asia during the 2016 Northeast monsoon season (October – December). However, below normal rainfall is likely over some areas of southeast peninsular India, Sri Lanka and Maldives. Below normal rainfall is also likely over some areas of north and eastern parts of the region. Above normal rainfall is likely over western and northwestern parts of Pakistan and some northeastern parts of the region. During the season, normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely, over most parts of the region.

This consensus forecast outlook for the 2016 northeast monsoon season rainfall and temperature over South Asia have been developed through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the world. Currently cool neutral ENSO conditions prevail in the Pacific Ocean and it is equally probable that these conditions are likely to continue or border line La Nina conditions are likely to develop during the northeast monsoon season. It is also recognized that other regional and global factors as well as the intra seasonal features of the region can affect the rainfall and temperature patterns over the region.

For more information and further updates on the northeast monsoon outlook on national scale, the respective National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) may be consulted.

A separate consensus statement for winter season (December 2016 to February 2017) will be issued in the second half of November 2016.

Introduction

During the northeast monsoon season (October to December), many parts of South Asia receive significant amounts of rainfall which coincides with one of the major agricultural seasons of the region. The reestablishment of prevailing north easterly trade-wind regime over South Asia associated with the southward movement of the ITCZ ushers-in the so-called “Northeast Monsoon” (NEM), bringing rainfall to the southern parts of India, Sri Lanka and Maldives. In Sri Lanka, the October to November period is known as second Inter Monsoon (SIM) season. It has been recognized that there is moderate seasonal predictability for the NE Monsoon circulation over the region as the seasonal variability is strongly influenced by the slowly varying boundary forcing like sea surface temperatures. However, the predictability is also limited to some extent due to the strong day to day atmospheric variability caused by the passage of the synoptic scale systems such as easterly waves, lows, depressions, cyclones etc. The seasonal predictability of the northeast monsoon over the region is also influenced by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which represent the major global scale intraseasonal variability pattern.

The climate outlook for the 2016 northeast monsoon season (October to December) was prepared during the ninth session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-9), which is the second session devoted exclusively for the Northeast monsoon season and was held at Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, 27-28th September 2016. The forum meeting was attended by several experts from various South Asian countries such as Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The Forum deliberated on various observed and emerging climatic features that are known to influence the climate of the region such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the equatorial Pacific, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions over the Indian Ocean etc. The key features of these conditions are as follows.

ENSO Conditions over the Pacific Ocean

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the global scale climate phenomena that have significant influence on the year-to-year variability of the northeast monsoon rainfall as well as the surface temperatures over South Asia. The strong El Nino event of 2015-2016 after peaking in December, 2015 started to weaken thereafter. In March 2016, conditions became warm neutral and further cooling of SSTs over equatorial Pacific thereafter resulted in the establishment of cool neutral ENSO conditions. Currently, the atmospheric conditions over the Pacific also reflect patterns consistent with the observed changes in the oceanic conditions. Latest forecasts indicate that cool neutral ENSO conditions may continue or the border line La Nina conditions may develop during the northeast monsoon season. However, in the early part of next year (2017), there is strong possibility of conditions over equatorial Pacific to be in the cool neutral ENSO level.

Conditions over the Indian Ocean

In addition to ENSO conditions over the Pacific, other factors such as Indian Ocean SSTs have some influence on the climate of the region. The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over equatorial Indian Ocean since late June 2016. Recent forecasts from coupled models suggest negative IOD conditions to weaken but continue during the OND season and turn to neutral IOD conditions during the early part of 2017.

Consensus Outlook for the 2016 Northeast Monsoon Rainfall over South Asia

A consensus outlook for northeast monsoon season rainfall over South Asia has been prepared based on the expert assessment of prevailing large-scale global climate indicators mentioned above and experimental as well as operational long-range forecasts based on statistical and dynamical models generated by various operational and research centres of the world.

There is unanimity among the experts that the prevailing cool neutral La Nina conditions in the equatorial Pacific are likely to continue or reach to border line La Nina conditions during the OND season. However, it is recognized that there is some uncertainty on the potential impacts of weak La Nina on the climate of the region due to strong day to day atmospheric variability generally observed in the region. Based on the historical data, it has been observed that during La Nina years, in general, southern parts of the region including southern Peninsular India, Sri Lanka and Maldives receive normal to below normal rainfall. However, it is important to note that La Nina is not the only factor that decides the performance of northeast monsoon over the region. Other relevant climate drivers such as the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole, the Tropical Atlantic SST etc. are also important. The relative impact of all these parameters needs to be considered to determine the expected state of the monsoon over the region.

The outlook for the 2016 northeast monsoon rainfall over South Asia is shown in Fig.1. The figure illustrates the most likely tercile category1 as well as its probability for each of the 1o latitude x 1o longitude spatial grid boxes over the region. The box-wise tercile probabilities were derived by synthesis of the available information and expert assessment. It was derived from an initial set of gridded objective forecasts and modified through a consensus building discussion of climate experts.

The outlook suggests that during the 2016 northeast monsoon season (October – December), normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of south Asia during the 2016 Northeast monsoon season (October – December). However, below normal rainfall is likely over some areas of southern part of the region consisting of southeast peninsular India, Sri Lanka and Maldives. It may be mentioned that these areas of the region climatologically receive good amount of rainfall during the season. Below normal rainfall is also likely over some areas of north and eastern parts of the region. Above normal rainfall is likely over western and northwestern parts of Pakistan and some northeastern parts of the region. During the season, normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely, over most parts of the region.

Verification

Verification of the Consensus Forecast for the 2015 NE Monsoon Season Rainfall

The consensus outlook map (Fig.2) for the northeast monsoon season (June to September) of 2015, developed in the seventh session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-6) had indicated normal to above normal rainfall over southern parts of South Asia including southeast peninsular India, Sri Lanka and Maldives. The consensus outlook also indicated above normal rainfall over northern most parts of the region and normal rainfall in over remaining areas of the region. As seen, the observed rainfall anomaly map (Fig.3) also suggests above normal rainfall over southern part and northern most parts of the region. These are also the regions which generally receive good amount of rainfall during the season. Thus the consensus forecast for the 2015 Northeast monsoon season rainfall was clearly able to indicate the main feature of the observed rainfall anomaly pattern